A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the country and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but very few government figures or advocates want to engage with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. They authors two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
