Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: positive announcements are released from different nations. Considerable effort is devoted on containing specific proposals. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from enemy soil, a capacity enabled by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to engage hostile cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by Western nations. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: possibly the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a drone close by, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its destination.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, destruction and utility failures in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a reliance that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to substitute in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from Washington sparked intense emotion, controversy and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new approach from Washington follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, no doubt, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington functions according to a premise well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from believing that the status quo will not shift further in its benefit in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing lives and land but averting a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its favour.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: personal goals to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not switch to internal issues. And although their task will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to kill the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
